Nearly Half of Wisconsin Democrats Haven’t Chosen a Candidate. That Could Help Mandela Barnes

Nearly half of Wisconsin voters still haven’t made up their minds ahead of the Democratic primary. In a race with no runaway favorite, that’s less a statistic than an invitation… especially for Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who is on the brink of making state history.

According to the latest Marquette Law School Poll, 45% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided, making Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary one of the most fluid statewide races in the country. State Rep. Francesca Hong still leads the polls, but Barnes isn’t trailing too far behind her. Even among Democrats who have already picked a candidate, the race remains flexible. More than one-third say they’re still open to changing their minds before Election Day, according to the poll. Supporters of Hong, however, appear to be the most locked in, with nearly three-quarters saying their decision is final.

Hong openly identifies as a democratic socialist and is part of the socialist caucus in the Wisconsin Legislature. As candidates who use that label have recently found success in Democratic primaries in places like New York and Colorado–including New York’s 2025 mayoral race–the term has become a bigger part of the party’s internal debate. In Wisconsin, Hong’s campaign is also testing how voters respond to the democratic socialist label when choosing a candidate for statewide office, according to the poll.

With no clear frontrunner, the campaign’s final weeks could determine everything.

Few candidates in the race have Barnes’ level of statewide recognition after serving as lieutenant governor and mounting a high-profile U.S. Senate campaign in 2022, according to his political bio. Democratic voters already know who he is. The challenge now is convincing them that he’s the right choice in 2026.

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In such a fractured field, no Democratic candidate needs to dominate every lane. Many like Hong or Barnes need to persuade voters looking for an experienced candidate who can build support across Wisconsin.

The unusually high number of undecided voters means nearly every major candidate still has room to grow. More progressive Democrats believe grassroots efforts can overcome better-known opponents, while more moderate Democrats are making the case that electability should be the party’s top priority in one of the nation’s top battleground states.

According to WMTV, the recent reshuffling of the field, including Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez ending her campaign and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s return to the ballot, has only increased the uncertainty surrounding where voters may ultimately land.

That’s what makes the Marquette poll so significant. A race with nearly half the electorate still uncommitted invites debates, endorsements, advertising, and campaign organization, all of which could have a substantial impact because so many Democrats are still weighing their options.

Mail-in ballots are already in voters’ hands ahead of the Aug. 11 primary. Now, candidates enter that final stretch with clear strengths and expectations. Name recognition alone won’t be enough, however. For anyone looking to secure the nomination, they’ll have to make the strongest case to the state’s largest remaining voting bloc: Democrats who still haven’t decided.