Is Trump’s $5,000 Promise Real or Campaign Smoke? We Asked an Expert to Break it Down

President Donald Trump just promised Americans a check, but there is one very large condition attached.

Speaking Wednesday (Sept. 9) night at the Republican Party’s midterm convention in Dallas, Trump told the audience that every adult citizen would receive $5,000 if Republicans win both the House and Senate in November. He called it the “Trump Dividend,” comparing the payment to a corporation distributing cash to shareholders.

The proposal immediately raised questions: Who qualifies? Where would the money come from? Would Congress approve it? And is promising Americans thousands of dollars if Republicans win an election a form of vote-buying?

Santiago Mayer, founder and executive director of Voters of Tomorrow, was among the critics, particularly given Trump’s history of promising payments to Americans amid legal and constitutional challenges.

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“There’s no shot in hell that voters trade democracy for a phony check that will never arrive,” Mayer told The Root. “Remember the $2,000 he promised after imposing his illegal tariffs? Did anyone ever get that check?”

We previously reported on Trump’s $2,000 tariff-funded proposal, which was never implemented. Mayer pointed to housing, student debt and healthcare costs as examples of expenses that a single payment now would not solve.

“The average cost of buying a home is over $400,000 in this country. The average student loan debt held per borrower is over $40,000,” Mayer said. “If Donald Trump thinks a one-time $5,000 check will convince young people—while proving totally incapable of fixing the problems at their core—he’s gravely mistaken. But what else is new?”

Here’s what you should know about Trump’s latest proposal:

Can Trump Do It Without Congress?

The president does not have unilateral authority to order the Treasury Department to send roughly $5,000 to every adult American. Congress would have to authorize the payments and provide the legal authority and funding.

Trump did not lay out a detailed mechanism for distributing the money during his speech.

The $1 Trillion Question

There are roughly 270 million adult U.S. citizens, meaning a $5,000 payment to each would cost about $1.35 trillion.

The Associated Press reported that the United States is already running an annual deficit of roughly $1.8 trillion, while the national debt has surpassed $40 trillion.

Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, has pointed out that calling the payment a “dividend” is misleading because the federal government does not have a surplus to distribute.

So Where’s the Money Coming From?

Trump has pointed to tariff revenue as a potential source of funding. Vice President JD Vance also suggested tariffs could help pay for the dividend, according to The Hill.

But there is a significant math problem: The amount required for the proposed checks is much larger than tariff revenue. The government would therefore potentially need another source of money, such as borrowing, new revenue or spending cuts, if Congress approved the program.

Economists have also raised concerns about inflation, particularly as Americans continue to face higher costs.

Is Trump Buying Votes?

This is where the political accusation and legal question diverge.

Trump explicitly conditioned the proposed payment on Republicans winning control of Congress, which critics say makes the promise an effort to influence voters.

Legal experts told the Associated Press that the proposal, as currently described, would not constitute bribery because Trump is not offering an individual voter $5,000 in exchange for voting for a particular candidate or party. The proposed payment would be available to eligible people regardless of how they voted.

Mayer argued the latest proposal is another attempt to win over voters with a financial promise.

“Donald Trump doesn’t have the record or the policies to win over young people in the midterms, so now he’s trying to buy our votes,” Mayer told us. “It won’t work. He’s a pathetic loser on his way out, and we’re excited to elect bold leaders who will help shape the next chapter of this country.”

So with 54 days left until the midterms, Trump’s proposal remains just that: a proposal… not a check.